Daily Kos


35. Married with two kids. Specialty: election projections.

CNN Further Descends Into Political Parody: Check Out This Headline

Thu Aug 07, 2008 at 07:59:58 AM PDT

So, Dana Milbank, on his way to a new contract with CNN, made a flip comment about wanting to go to a place that "holds both parties accountable."

A little arrow on the way out the door directed at Keith Olbermann, but I wonder what Mr. Milbank would have to say about this headline, which as of right now (7:44 AM PT) is on the front page of CNN.com.

OBAMA FACES UPHILL POLLING BATTLE

I shit you not.

Poll

Aside From MSNBC, Who Has Delivered the Best Election Coverage in 2008?

0%0 votes
0%0 votes
1%6 votes
2%8 votes
2%8 votes
79%286 votes
11%41 votes
3%13 votes

| 362 votes | Vote | Results

More Disingenuous Poll Analysis: This Time From Quinnipiac

Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 08:23:48 AM PDT

As has been reported elsewhere, Quinnipiac is out with new numbers in three battleground states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. In all three states, Barack Obama holds a lead over John McCain.

PA: Obama 49%, McCain 42%
OH: Obama 46%, McCain 44%
FL: Obama 46%, McCain 44%

However, like many other pollsters lately (Gallup and their "trying out new scenarios" comes to mind), Quinnipiac seems to be going well out of its way to try to prop up the Republican nominee. Their headline for this set of polls is as follows: "July 31, 2008 - Obama Tour Doesn't Help In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds."

Molly Ivins Saw The Tennessee Shooter Coming--13 Years Ago.

Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 07:58:53 PM PDT

The shooting in Knoxville has made me both sad...and angry. Sad because it is a natural reaction to such a horrific and tragic event. Angry because of the motive of the shooter, and the fact that the media (at least on websites, I have to confess I have not watched TV today) seems eager to bury that motive. The cynic in me believes that if this were an avowed atheist shooting up some fundamentalist megachurch, we'd see wall-to-wall coverage of the "religious hatred" in America, or some such nonsense.

Given that the shooting occurred in a church known for its progressive and tolerant worldview, many of us suspected a shooter with political motivations. We were right. But it is worth noting that the beloved late journalist Molly Ivins had us beat to the story, by a bit over thirteen years.

STUNNING: Fox News Push Polling For John McCain

Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 02:13:13 PM PDT

I don't know if I meant the "stunning" in the title to be sarcastic or not, by the way.

Fox News, as most of us know, sees it as an integral part of its mission to be the semi-official media outlet of the Republican Party. But, in this election season with so much at stake, Fox News is taking it one step beyond. They just polled the Presidential Race (Obama 41-40, if you care what Fox News thinks about anything). In so doing, they used some polling techniques that are PURE push polling.

As often is the case, TPM ElectionCentral has the goods.

Michele Bachmann on ANWR: Comedy Gold Abounds

Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 02:36:36 PM PDT

Today, I thought I'd share something I have noticed, and something I found quite amusing. There are a variety of political websites on the left that have made a regular habit of chronicling the more absurd statements made by Republican politicians.

Last year, it seemed that a lot of them came from a single Congressman: Jack Kingston of Georgia. He was the one responsible for (1) complaining that the new schedule of Congress working five days a week was anti-family; (2) placing a resolution in Congress praising Rush "Phony Troops" Limbaugh for his support of the military; and (3) praising a potential African-American GOP candidate for being so "articulate" and "presentable."

This year's chief contributor? None other than freshman Republican Michele Bachman of Minnesota.

Novak: Those Clever McCain Folks Tricked Me!!!!

Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:48:54 PM PDT

This is classic stuff.

According to Halperin at Time, the Prince of Darkness was on Fox News (Ed. Note: Where Else, of Course??!!??) saying that he now believes that the McCain team deceived him, and that they were never really planning on launching their VP pick this week.

Furthermore, Novak gives us a compelling motive: Obama is getting boffo press for his overseas trip, and the McCain people needed a way to horn in on the coverage.

And Novak is mad. Very, very mad.

STUNNER: New Rasmussen Poll Has Merkley Leading OR-SEN

Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 11:41:13 AM PDT

This will be fairly quick, because I am only on a ten-minute break teaching my summer school economics class.

Rasmussen just released a new poll on the Oregon Senate race.

Jeff Merkley now LEADS incumbent Republican Senator Gordon Smith, 43%--41%. If leaners are factored in, the race is all even at 46%.

They also polled the presidential race, giving Barack Obama a nine-point edge in the state (46-37, 49-40 with leaners).

Story of the Year: WWJ Shoot With His New Assault Rifle??!!??

Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 02:58:06 PM PDT

This is one of those news items where the lede makes you want to scroll up and confirm the date is not April 1st.

A church in Oklahoma regrets to inform the teenagers coming to its youth faith conference that it won't be giving away that assault rifle after all.

Let me try to piece this together: Church Retreat. Kids. Assault Rifle.

I shit you not.

McCain's Buddy Hates America, But CNN Does Not Notice

Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 09:43:04 AM PDT

This, in a nutshell is what absolutely burns me up about the traditional media.

So, as has been well documented here at D-Kos and other left-of-center online outlets, top McCain adviser Phil Gramm tells the Washington Times today that the recession is all in our minds, and that we are a bunch of whiners who have been duped by the media into not knowing how bountiful and wonderful the economy is.

Poll

Grade The Media's Performance In This Election:

0%1 votes
0%0 votes
1%2 votes
23%30 votes
74%94 votes

| 127 votes | Vote | Results

FOLLOWING THE POLLS: America's Birthday Edition

Mon Jul 07, 2008 at 07:19:31 AM PDT

The expectation was that the week of the July 4th holiday would be a slow polling week. As it turned out, it was a fairly busy week, with over 30 polls released during the week. While some polls (the Connecticut polls, for example) have seen a lot of attention on D-Kos, others have not.

Follow me for the cavalcade of numbers....

Poll

The Holy S**t Poll of the Week Is:

17%14 votes
3%3 votes
66%52 votes
3%3 votes
5%4 votes
2%2 votes

| 78 votes | Vote | Results

McCain Campaign Demeans Clark's Military Service--Will The Media Notice?

Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 09:07:37 AM PDT

TPM Election Central has a rather disturbing story online this morning.

Trying to turn a two-day story into a three-day story, the McCain campaign held a conference call on the issue of the Wes Clark comments. In so doing, they committed a real offense--IF the media has the balls to hurt the feelings of their favorite Republican by reporting on it.

Orson Swindle, who first rose to political prominence as one of the chief pooh-bahs of the Perot campaign in 1992, and himself a Vietnam P.O.W. criticized Clark by--you guessed it--demeaning his military service.

Poll

Chances The Trad Media Will Pick Up This McCain Campaign Attack on Wes Clark's Service To This Nation:

56%50 votes
36%32 votes
1%1 votes
3%3 votes
1%1 votes
1%1 votes

| 88 votes | Vote | Results

A New, And Intellectually Dishonest, Attack on Olbermann

Mon Jun 30, 2008 at 09:58:02 AM PDT

The media site TV Newser had an interesting story today about a new attack piece on Keith Olbermann, this one from Jed Babbin from Human Events Magazine.

Most of the article gives us the now-hackneyed right-wing boilerplate against Olbermann--NBC has become a cesspool of secular liberalism because of him, they are so mean to the president, blah blah blah.

But, Babbin then tries to draw a business comparison, and winds up looking like a buffoon in the bargain.

Poll

Your LEAST Favorite TV Cable Host Is _________.

0%0 votes
19%71 votes
2%10 votes
0%3 votes
0%2 votes
7%26 votes
1%6 votes
30%112 votes
2%8 votes
1%4 votes
7%27 votes
26%95 votes

| 364 votes | Vote | Results

FOLLOWING THE POLLS: The Slightly Truncated Edition

Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 10:48:44 AM PDT

AUTHORS NOTE: I had written this to post it yesterday afternoon. For some reason, it would not let me publish, saying I had already written a diary (it had been deleted). I chose not to edit it, so some of the references ("today", "yesterday") are a bit off. Apologies...

There was another bevy of polls this week, both on the presidential race and downstream, as well. Unfortunately, I do not have all of them at my disposal, as I put them in a notebook which I cannot, at present, find.

Nevertheless, I do have numbers on 22 separate contests, so let's head past the jump for the numerical goodness, which includes two polls just released in the past few hours!

FOLLOWING THE POLLS: The "I'm Baaack" Edition

Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 03:07:42 PM PDT

Yep, so at this point the sheer mass of polling data is such that it is time for me to tiptoe back into the water. The fact that school has let out for the summer (though I am teaching summer school) helps out, as well.

So today, the Following the Polls series that I began back in 2006 makes its permanent return. It will start as a weekly series (Friday seems to be the logical day), and then it will become daily once we get past Labor Day.

And, week one of the series sees a big polling week, as there are 35 separate races that were polled this week. Head past the flip for all the numerical goodness.

Poll

This Week's "Holy Sh*t" Poll Would Be __________.

21%12 votes
14%8 votes
46%26 votes
1%1 votes
1%1 votes
0%0 votes
5%3 votes
1%1 votes
1%1 votes
5%3 votes

| 56 votes | Vote | Results

ME-SEN: Another Tossup? Allen Closing In On Collins

Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 12:10:07 PM PDT

Rasmussen just released a new poll, and the bad news for the GOP continues virtually unabated:

SUSAN COLLINS (R-INC) 49%, TOM ALLEN (D) 42%

The poll, conducted on Monday of this week, is the latest in a series of polls this week which have been rosy for the Democrats, and (by and large) depressing for the GOP.

Poll

Democrats Will Pick Up ________ Seats in the US Senate in 2008.

0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%1 votes
1%4 votes
8%20 votes
12%28 votes
22%52 votes
18%42 votes
35%82 votes

| 229 votes | Vote | Results

SENATE: Ensign Chalks Off Two Of His Senate Prospects...In June.

Fri Jun 13, 2008 at 10:03:34 AM PDT

TPM Election Central has uplifting news for Democrats, and another dollop of grim electoral news for the GOP.

In a rather extraordinary admission, NRSC head John Ensign has already conceded two Republican-held Senate seats to the Democrats--John Warner's seat in Virginia, and Pete Domenici's seat in New Mexico.

The money quote, and some analysis, on the flip.

Poll

The Democrats Will ____________ Seat(s) in the Senate

0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%1 votes
0%1 votes
2%4 votes
8%12 votes
16%25 votes
24%36 votes
16%24 votes
30%45 votes

| 148 votes | Vote | Results

TPM: Lieberman Begged For Obama Endorsement in 2006.

Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 01:55:36 PM PDT

Greg Sargent over at TPM Election Central has the scoop on a story that makes Joe Lieberman's recent apostasy on the subject of the presidential race even more disturbing.

Sargent is reporting on the revelation, courtesy of a top staffer on Lieberman's 2006 Senate race, that the Lieberman camp made a very specific and very sincere plea for Obama to endorse Lieberman shortly after Ned Lamont entered the Democratic Primary, and that Obama agreed to come to the aid of his politically embattled colleague.

Given recent events, it makes Lieberman out to be an even bigger backstabbing little weasel than we might have believed.

OK, Hill, You Lost Me....

Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 07:09:47 PM PDT

I never voted for Hillary Clinton. She was my third choice from day one. When John Edwards left the stage in January, I switched over to Obama.

That said, I had no great rancor for Clinton. Indeed, I donated to all three candidates. I have been a pretty vocal Obama guy, but I have not joined in much of the antipathy towards Clinton that has emanated from both this site and elsewhere.

Well, mea culpa, folks. You were right, and I was far too charitable. What we just heard was one of the most graceless, classless moments in American politics.

Poll

Hillary Clinton Will Concede....

25%68 votes
2%8 votes
4%12 votes
67%184 votes

| 272 votes | Vote | Results


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